The causes of war in the world are not limited to resources such as oil and precious metals. Among the causes of future war are accessible water resources, which are not yet fully understood but are at the center of conflicts. There is a prevailing view that water resources, not oil resources, will be the factor that determines the boundaries of future conflicts.
Water has been of strategic importance throughout history, and bloody conflicts have occurred between communities for access to water resources. It shows that although a large part of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, water shortage still exists. More than 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas. However, 97% of this water is salty and only 3% is fresh water. Most of the fresh water is in the form of ice at the poles and only 1% is drinkable.
Management of Water Resources Around the World
Water resources show different distributions in different geographical regions. While this is advantageous for some countries, it causes a lack of clean drinkable water in other regions. Therefore, management of water resources is as important as the resources themselves.
Israelis one of the countries that makes serious efforts regarding water policies. The Israeli government purifies and reuses groundwater multiple times to make the best use of limited resources. In addition, Israel has requested water resources outside its borders, for example, it has wanted to rent resources such as Turkey’s Manavgat water.
Developed countries are using traditional methods water resourcesIt uses various technologies to diversify the water supply, such as desalination, use of treated wastewater, rain harvesting, cloud seeding and irrigation drainage water. These countries make the best use of each cubic meter of water resources.
Management of water resources is an important issue around the world, and the effective use of these resources can be a factor determining the boundaries of future conflicts. Managing water resources sustainably is of increasing strategic importance in international relations.
Possible Water Wars in the Future
Possible water wars in the future first in the Middle East It is anticipated that it may start. This prediction global warming It is based on factors such as increasing water resources and rapid depletion of water resources. Assoc. Prof. from the Department of Environment at the University of Massachusetts. Dr. Timothy O. Randhir emphasizes that water wars will increase due to the decrease in resources.
The Asian continent, which has more than 60% of the world’s population, controls 36% of usable water. On the other hand, the South American continent, which accounts for 6% of the world’s population, has 26% of usable water.
In particular, the Amazon River alone represents 15% of the available water worldwide. According to the estimates of the World Meteorological Organization, 66% of the world’s population will suffer from water shortage by 2025 It is foreseen.
Assoc. Dr. According to Timothy O. Randhir, water disputes have historically been expected in the Middle East and parts of the Americas. Additionally, water problems are likely to increase in regions where water resources are shared between different countries. Examples include the Nile River and the regions between America and Canada. These disputes over the sharing of water resources are potential problems that may lead to water wars in the future.
Managing water resources sustainably and controlling water pollution is critical to preventing possible water wars. water warsThere are many predictions about the parties of . These predictions are based on the tensions created by inequalities in the distribution of world water resources and increasing water demand.
Middle East and Turkey’s Strategic Role
From Turkey’s perspective, although the sources of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers are within the borders of Turkey, the place where these rivers flow into their final destination, the Persian Gulf, is important. These regions have been irrigated by these rivers for thousands of years, and many struggles have occurred between civilizations, civilizations and religions in these lands. Water sharing, especially Türkiye and Syria There was a problem between them. Generally Euphrates and Tigris Although rivers are at the center of this problem, there have actually been more problems with sharing cross-border waters.
Syria’s concern is that infrastructure projects such as the Keban Dam, which Turkey built on the Euphrates River, and the Karakaya Dam, which was completed in 1987, will reduce the Euphrates River waters flowing into Syria. Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project The project known as (GAP) further increased tensions with Syria. The water issue has led to tensions between Turkey and Syria, resulting in political and military conflicts. Syria has used its water resources as leverage against Turkey for many years. However, looking further into the details of this situation, beyond Syria’s stance, Iraq, Iran, indirectly the USA And IsraelIt seems that he is involved in this issue.
Such problems can form the basis of conflicts between countries, and when combined with external interventions, the problem becomes even more complicated. Governments that have experienced difficulties with external interventions, especially since the 1980s, have had difficulties in completing the GAP project. However, the solution process, which includes maintaining political stability in Turkey, taking steps towards the industrialization of the region, resolving the conflict and using advanced agricultural technologies, has made the completion of the GAP project more concrete.
World Population, the Middle East and Increasing Water Demand
The world population is increasing rapidly, especially in the Middle East. The world population increased rapidly in the post-World War II period, exceeding 2.5 billion people in the 1960s and reaching 6.5 billion in the 2000s. As of 2014, the world population is approximately 7 billion. This rapid population growth is seen especially more clearly in Middle Eastern countries. Türkiye also shares this trend.
Turkey’s population, which was 14 million in the years when the Republic was founded, reached 20 million in 1950, 40 million in 1970, 56 million in 1990 and 77 million in 2014. According to United Nations reports, rapid population growth in the region will double the need for water and food by 2030. This makes water as strategic a resource as oil for the Middle East. The rapidly growing population in the region increases the demand for water and water-related agriculture.
In summary, the sharing of the above-mentioned rivers by more than one country, the problems experienced in the distribution and use of these water resources, and the lack of clear rules within the framework of international law, pave the way for international conflicts. Additionally, such agreements often require the participation of more than one country and may be open to external interference.
Countries That May Experience Water War
in the Middle East Euphrates and Tigris There is a risk of possible conflict between Türkiye, Syria and Iraq for the rivers. Jordan RiverIt may cause conflicts between Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Palestine. the NileThis could lead to a potential water war between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
in Central Asia to Aral SeaThere is a risk of conflict between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. India and Pakistan in South Asia, Wular Dam and Farraka Dam is experiencing tension due to Mahakali River, It may create a problem between Nepal and India. In Southeast Asia Mekong River There is potential for conflict between Cambodia, China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam due to the dams on the border.
In Southern Africa, Botswana and Namibia are on the verge of conflict over water resources. Libya’s fossil waters create tension with Algeria. Between USA and Mexico Colorado River Sharing water poses a problem. La Plata, It carries the potential for conflict between Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.
Throughout history, there have been disputes and conflicts regarding water resources. Such problems make sustainable water management and international cooperation important. The potential dangers of water wars demonstrate how critical it is to sustainably manage water resources around the world and peacefully resolve disputes over access to water.
